Restarted Bayesian Online Change-point Detector achieves Optimal Detection Delay

Jul 12, 2020

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In this paper, we consider the problem of sequential change-point detection where both the change-points and the distributions before and after the change are assumed to be unknown. For this key problem in statistical and sequential learning theory, we derive a variant of the Bayesian Online Change Point Detector proposed by <cit.> which is easier to analyze than the original version while keeping its powerful message-passing algorithm. We provide a non-asymptotic analysis of the false-alarm rate and the detection delay that matches the existing lower-bound. We further provide the first explicit high-probability control of the detection delay for such approach. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that this proposal compares favorably with the state-of-art change-point detection strategy, namely the Improved Generalized Likelihood Ratio (Improved GLR) while outperforming the original Bayesian Online Change Point Detection strategy.

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The International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) is the premier gathering of professionals dedicated to the advancement of the branch of artificial intelligence known as machine learning. ICML is globally renowned for presenting and publishing cutting-edge research on all aspects of machine learning used in closely related areas like artificial intelligence, statistics and data science, as well as important application areas such as machine vision, computational biology, speech recognition, and robotics. ICML is one of the fastest growing artificial intelligence conferences in the world. Participants at ICML span a wide range of backgrounds, from academic and industrial researchers, to entrepreneurs and engineers, to graduate students and postdocs.

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