Predictive Multiplicity in Classification

Jul 12, 2020

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Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect – called the multiplicity of good models – challenges how we build and deploy predictive models. In this paper, we study a specific notion of model multiplicity – predictive multiplicity – where competing models assign conflicting predictions. Predictive multiplicity signals irreconcilable differences in the predictions of competing models. In applications such as recidivism prediction and credit scoring, evidence of predictive multiplicity challenges model selection and downstream processes that depend on it. We propose measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity in classification, and develop integer programming methods to compute them efficiently. We apply our methods to evaluate predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and support the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

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The International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) is the premier gathering of professionals dedicated to the advancement of the branch of artificial intelligence known as machine learning. ICML is globally renowned for presenting and publishing cutting-edge research on all aspects of machine learning used in closely related areas like artificial intelligence, statistics and data science, as well as important application areas such as machine vision, computational biology, speech recognition, and robotics. ICML is one of the fastest growing artificial intelligence conferences in the world. Participants at ICML span a wide range of backgrounds, from academic and industrial researchers, to entrepreneurs and engineers, to graduate students and postdocs.

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