Mar 28, 2022
In many contexts it is useful to predict the number of individuals in some population who will initiate a particular activity during a given period. For example,the number of users who will install a software update, the number of customers who will use a new feature on a website or who will participate in an A/B test. In practical settings, there is heterogeneity amongst individuals with regard to the distribution of time until they will initiate. For these reasons it is inappropriate to assume that the number of new individuals observed on successive days will be identically distributed. Given observations on the number of unique users participating in an initial period, we present a simple but novel Bayesian method for predicting the number of additional individuals who will subsequently participate during a subsequent period. We illustrate the performance of the method in predicting sample size in online experimentation.
AISTATS is an interdisciplinary gathering of researchers at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, and related areas. Since its inception in 1985, the primary goal of AISTATS has been to broaden research in these fields by promoting the exchange of ideas among them. We encourage the submission of all papers which are in keeping with this objective at AISTATS.
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