Dez 10, 2023
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We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model in order to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional probabilities. When generating long sequences, most autoregressive approaches suffer from harmful error accumulation, as well as challenges in modeling long-distance dependencies. SutraNets treat long, univariate prediction as *multivariate* prediction over lower-frequency *sub-series*. Autoregression proceeds across time *and* across sub-series in order to ensure coherent multivariate (and, hence, high-frequency univariate) outputs. Since sub-series can be generated using fewer steps, SutraNets effectively reduce error accumulation and signal path distances. We find SutraNets to significantly improve forecasting accuracy over competitive alternatives on six real-world datasets, including when we vary the number of sub-series and scale up the depth and width of the underlying sequence models.We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model in order to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional probabilities. When generating long sequences, most autoregressive approaches suffer from harmful error accumulation, as well as challenges in modeling long-distance dependencies. SutraNets treat long, univariate prediction as *multivariate* prediction over lower…
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