Dirichlet Simplex Nest and Geometric Inference We propose Dirichlet Simplex Nest, a class of probabilistic models suitable for a variety of data types, and develop fast and provably accurate inference algorithms by accounting for the model's convex geometry and low dimensional simplicial structure. By exploiting the connection to Voronoi tessellation and properties of Dirichlet distribution, the proposed inference algorithm is shown to achieve consistency and strong error bound guarantees on a range of model settings and data distributions. The effectiveness of our model and the learning algorithm is demonstrated by simulations and by analyses of text and financial data. Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation for large data Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but unfortunately, LOO does not scale well to large datasets. We propose a combination of using approximate inference techniques and probability-proportional-to-size-sampling (PPS) for fast LOO model evaluation for large datasets. We provide both theoretical and empirical results showing good properties for large data. Rao-Blackwellized Stochastic Gradients for Discrete Distributions We wish to compute the gradient of an expectation over a finite or countably infinite sample space having K ≤ ∞ categories. When K is indeed infinite, or finite but very large, the relevant summation is intractable. Accordingly, various stochastic gradient estimators have been proposed. In this paper, we describe a technique that can be applied to reduce the variance of any such estimator, without changing its bias—in particular, unbiasedness is retained. We show that our technique is an instance of Rao-Blackwellization, and we demonstrate the improvement it yields on a semi-supervised classification problem and a pixel attention task. Neurally-Guided Structure Inference Most structure inference methods either rely on exhaustive search or are purely data-driven. Exhaustive search robustly infers the structure of arbitrarily complex data, but it is slow. Data-driven methods allow efficient inference, but do not generalize when test data has more complex structures than training data. In this paper, we propose a hybrid inference algorithm, Neurally-Guided Structure Inference (NG-SI), keeping the advantages of both search-based and data-driven methods. The key idea of NG-SI is to use a neural network to guide the hierarchical, layer-wise search over the compositional space of structures. We evaluate our algorithm on two representative structure inference tasks: probabilistic matrix factorization and symbolic program parsing. It outperforms data-driven and search-based alternatives on both tasks. Bayesian Joint Spike-and-Slab Graphical Lasso In this article, we propose a new class of priors for Bayesian inference with multiple Gaussian graphical models. We introduce Bayesian treatments of two popular procedures, the group graphical lasso and the fused graphical lasso, and extend them to a continuous spike-and-slab framework to allow self-adaptive shrinkage and model selection simultaneously. We develop an EM algorithm that performs fast and dynamic explorations of posterior modes. Our approach selects sparse models efficiently and automatically with substantially smaller bias than would be induced by alternative regularization procedures. The performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through simulation and two real data examples. Rotation Invariant Householder Parameterization for Bayesian PCA We consider probabilistic PCA and related factor models from a Bayesian perspective. These models are in general not identifiable as the likelihood has a rotational symmetry. This gives rise to complicated posterior distributions with continuous subspaces of equal density and thus hinders efficiency of inference as well as interpretation of obtained parameters. In particular, posterior averages over factor loadings become meaningless and only model predictions are unambiguous. Here, we propose a parameterization based on Householder transformations, which remove the rotational symmetry of the posterior. Furthermore, by relying on results from random matrix theory, we establish the parameter distribution which leaves the model unchanged compared to the original rotationally symmetric formulation. In particular, we avoid the need to compute the Jacobian determinant of the parameter transformation. This allows us to efficiently implement probabilistic PCA in a rotation invariant fashion in any state of the art toolbox. Here, we implemented our model in the probabilistic programming language Stan and illustrate it on several examples. A Framework for Bayesian Optimization in Embedded Subspaces We present a theoretically founded approach for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization based on low-dimensional subspace embeddings. We prove that the error in the Gaussian process model is bounded tightly when going from the original high-dimensional search domain to the low-dimensional embedding. This implies that the optimization process in the low-dimensional embedding proceeds essentially as if it were run directly on the unknown active subspace. The argument applies to a large class of algorithms and GP mod- els, including non-stationary kernels. Moreover, we provide an efficient implementation based on hashing and demonstrate empirically that this sub- space embedding achieves considerably better results than the previously proposed methods for high-dimensional BO based on Gaussian matrix projections and structure-learning. Convolutional Poisson Gamma Belief Network To analyze a text corpus, one often resorts to a lossy representation that either completely ignores word order or embeds the words as low-dimensional dense feature vectors. In this paper, we propose convolutional Poisson factor analysis (CPFA) that directly operates on a lossless representation that processes the words in each document as a sequence of high-dimensional one-hot vectors. To boost its performance, we further propose the convolutional Poisson gamma belief network (CPGBN) that couples CPFA with the gamma belief network via a novel probabilistic pooling layer. CPFA forms words into phrases and captures very specific phrase-level topics, and CPGBN further builds a hierarchy of increasingly more general phrase-level topics. We develop both an upward-downward Gibbs sampler, which makes the computation feasible by exploiting the extreme sparsity of the one-hot vectors, and a Weibull distribution based convolutional variational auto-encoder that makes CPGBN become even more scalable in both training and testing. Experimental results demonstrate that CPGBN can extract high-quality text latent representations that capture the word order information, and hence can be leveraged as a building block to enrich a wide variety of existing discrete latent variable models that ignore word order. Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural-network based conditional density estimators. However, existing methods are limited to a narrow range of proposal distributions or require importance-weighting that can limit performance in practice. Here we present automatic posterior transformation (APT), a new approach for simulation-based inference via neural posterior estimation. APT is able to modify the posterior estimate using arbitrary, dynamically updated proposals, and is compatible with powerful flow-based density estimators. We show that APT is more flexible, scalable and efficient than previous simulation-based inference techniques and can directly learn informative features from high-dimensional and time series data. Active Learning for Decision-Making from Imbalanced Observational Data Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action a to take for a target unit after observing its covariates x and predicted outcomes p(y \mid x, a). An example case is personalized medicine and the decision of which treatment to give to a patient. A common problem when learning these models from observational data is imbalance, that is, difference in treated/control covariate distributions, which is known to increase the upper bound of the expected ITE estimation error. We propose to assess the decision-making reliability by estimating the ITE model's Type S error rate, which is the probability of the model inferring the sign of the treatment effect wrong. Furthermore, we use the estimated reliability as a criterion for active learning, in order to collect new (possibly expensive) observations, instead of making a forced choice based on unreliable predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this decision-making aware active learning in two decision-making tasks: in simulated data with binary outcomes and in a medical dataset with synthetic and continuous treatment outcomes.

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