Dec 10, 2023
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Applying autoregressive neural networks to the temporal point process (TPP) framework has become the de facto standard for modeling continuous-time event data. Even though these models are expressive in modeling event sequences in a one-step-ahead fashion, they are inherently limited for long-term forecasting applications due to the accumulation of errors caused by sequential sampling.By deriving a probabilistic diffusion model for TPPs, we propose ADD-THIN, a new framework that naturally handles the continuous and discrete nature of point processes and directly models whole event sequences. In doing so, we match the performance of state-of-the-art models in density estimation and outperform them for forecasting.We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.Applying autoregressive neural networks to the temporal point process (TPP) framework has become the de facto standard for modeling continuous-time event data. Even though these models are expressive in modeling event sequences in a one-step-ahead fashion, they are inherently limited for long-term forecasting applications due to the accumulation of errors caused by sequential sampling.By deriving a probabilistic diffusion model for TPPs, we propose ADD-THIN, a new framework that naturally handle…
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